Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
