A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
