How The Unusual Season Broke the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still